Update Data
This workbook is the single source of truth for the entire site — Player Search, Disposal Predictor, Confidence-Based Multi, Positive EV Finder, Best Bets, Confidence Scores, Kelly Stake, fixtures, and every chart all read from whatever is uploaded here. Nothing is hardcoded: upload a new workbook each week and every page updates automatically, with no code changes required.
If you enter the password here, this upload is published to everyone who visits the site — not just this device. Leave it blank to save this upload only on this browser, the way it worked before.
Sync from Google Sheets Beta
Pulls the current version of your Google Sheet directly — no need to download and re-upload a file each time you update it. The sheet needs to stay shared as "Anyone with the link can view" for this to work.
Syncs automatically every hour in every visitor's browser, plus once shortly after the page loads — so the whole site stays current with whatever's in the sheet without anyone needing to click anything. Editing the sheet mid-hour is safe most of the time, but if a sync happens to land while you're mid-edit, visitors could briefly see a half-updated state — worth keeping in mind if you're making a big structural change, rather than a routine data update.
Beat The Model — Publish Challenge Now
A new challenge normally only publishes automatically once a week, Wednesday 3pm Sydney time. Use this to publish one immediately instead — useful for testing, or if a round genuinely has no challenge yet and you don't want to wait for the next scheduled window. Has no effect if a challenge already exists for the current round.
NBA Data
Separate upload for the NBA side of the site — its own workbook, its own data, entirely independent of the AFL upload above.
Sync NBA Data from Google Sheets
Pulls the current version of your NBA Google Sheet directly — no need to re-upload a file each time you update it. The sheet needs to stay shared as "Anyone with the link can view" for this to work.
Syncs automatically every hour, plus once shortly after the page loads — so the NBA side of the site stays current with whatever's in the sheet without anyone needing to click anything.
Live AFL Disposal Odds Beta
Live AFL disposal player-prop odds from The Odds API (Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, TAB, PointsBet, Betr), merged into the odds already loaded — it doesn't replace your Excel upload, it fills in live prices on top of it. Multiple lines per player (e.g. 24.5, 29.5, 34.5) are all kept, not collapsed to one.
Refreshes automatically every Thursday at 9:00 AM AEST/AEDT in the background — a scheduled server-side job fetches once a week regardless of how many people are on the site, so every visitor reads the same cached prices instead of each browser hitting the odds API on its own.
Live NBA Player Prop Odds Beta
Live NBA player-prop odds from The Odds API — Points, Rebounds, Assists, and 3-Pointers Made, one market fetched per stat. Multiple lines per player per stat are all kept, not collapsed to one, same as AFL's odds.
Refreshes automatically every day at 3:30 AM AEST in the background — there's no manual refresh button, by design, since a single scheduled run keeps every visitor reading the same cached prices rather than each browser hitting the odds API on its own.
Weekly Email
Builds this round's email from the same Round Recap and Biggest Winners data already live on the site. Nothing sends automatically — review the preview, then send explicitly once you're ready. This goes to every subscriber on the Brevo list.
Find a player
NBA Player Search
Search an NBA player, pick their opponent and Home/Away, and see all five tracked stats — Minutes, Points, Rebounds, Assists, and 3-Pointers Made — with season/recent-form context and a matchup-adjusted prediction for each. This is a separate data source and prediction engine from the AFL side of the site.
Compare NBA Players
Compare two NBA players head-to-head using the ApexMetrics prediction engine. Analyse season form, recent trends and consistency across all five tracked stats to identify which player holds the statistical edge.
NBA Confidence Scan
ApexMetrics analyses your tracked NBA players to identify the strongest statistical opportunities based on your selected confidence level. Each selection is ranked using model projections and confidence — where live odds are available, EV and price are shown automatically; otherwise add your own odds per leg in My Multi.
Available Confidence Picks
My Multi
NBA Hot Stats
Find players riding genuine statistical streaks. ApexMetrics scans recent performances to identify consistent stat trends and highlights where player form aligns with market value.
NBA Board
Add a player, stat, and line — if a live priced line exists, odds fill in automatically when you pick the player and stat (still fully editable). Otherwise enter the odds yourself, same as a manual add on the AFL side.
NBA Team Dashboard
Analyse every team's scoring environment before a matchup. Explore their upcoming fixture, tracked roster and defensive profile to understand how many Points, Rebounds, Assists and 3-Pointers they concede compared with league averages.
NBA Performance Tracker
Test how ApexMetrics performs on the NBA side using simulated bets. Tracked completely separately from the AFL ledger. Uses manually entered odds, since there's no priced NBA odds sheet yet.
Bankroll Settings
Stake per bet is calculated automatically from your starting bankroll and unit size, and is used as the default stake for Units Won / ROI below.
Performance Summary
Bet History
Add More Analytics
Model Performance — Overall
Breakdown by Market
Breakdown by Confidence
Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
Evaluate ApexMetrics NBA Prediction Accuracy
Track how accurately ApexMetrics predicts NBA player stats over time
Walk-forward accuracy — every prediction shown here was made using only data available before that game, same no-lookahead methodology as the AFL side. Choose a stat to backtest.
Round Summary
Accuracy Trends
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by round, last 20 rounds — tracks average prediction error. Lower is better. Points only — MAE is less meaningful on the narrower Rebounds/Assists/3PM ranges.
Correct prediction rate (actual met or exceeded the prediction) and within-±2 rate, last 20 rounds.
Player Line History
Search any NBA player to see every ApexMetrics projection made for them this season for the selected stat, lined up against what they actually did.
Prediction History
Every ApexMetrics prediction for the selected round and stat, checked against the actual result.
Accuracy by Confidence Level
Buckets every prediction in the selected scope by the model's confidence at the time, and checks how often the actual result met or exceeded the prediction.
ApexMetrics NBA Rankings
Rank players based on their historical performance against the ApexMetrics prediction model. Using walk-forward accuracy data from the current season, rankings highlight the players the model has evaluated most consistently. A minimum of five tracked games is required to ensure rankings reflect sustained performance rather than short-term variance.
Most Reliable Players
Highest correct rate (actual points met or beat the model's prediction) across every tracked game this season.
| Player | Predictions | Accuracy |
|---|
Hottest Form
Biggest jump from season average to last-5-game average in points.
| Player | Season Avg | Last 5 Avg | Improvement |
|---|
Most Consistent
Lowest average prediction error (in points) across every tracked game this season.
| Player | Predictions | Avg Error |
|---|
Prediction Royale
Challenge the ApexMetrics algorithm every day. Five player projections are selected and you call Over, Under, or Pass on each one. Track your accuracy, compete against the model, and prove whether your hoops IQ can outperform the data.
Same account works everywhere on the site — no need to register twice if you already have one.
Leaderboards
🔮 Ask Apex
What do you want to know?
Top Confidence Picks
All stats| Player | Stat | Confidence | Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|
Upcoming Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Venue |
|---|
Model Performance — Accuracy by Round (Points)
NBA Predictions Today
ApexMetrics' model-generated NBA player projections for upcoming games — Points, Rebounds, Assists, and 3-Pointers Made. Ranked by projected points. Updated automatically as new games are synced.
Round Recap
NBA Data Insights
Genuine findings from ApexMetrics' walk-forward prediction history — not editorial takes, just what the season's actual results show. Updated as new rounds are processed.
Projection Surprises
The biggest gaps between what the model projected and what actually happened, using the same walk-forward accuracy data shown on Model Performance and Leaderboards.
Injuries
ApexMetrics automatically tracks player availability (via ESPN) and removes confirmed unavailable players from predictions. Uncertain players remain monitored until their status is confirmed.
🏆 Biggest Winners
The lines and odds ApexMetrics saw before each round, graded against what actually happened — spanning all four tracked stats (Points, Rebounds, Assists, 3-Pointers Made), not just one. Snapshots are taken automatically when NBA data is synced and never change afterward — this shows exactly what was available at the time, wins and losses both. Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Profit figures use a hypothetical $10 unit for performance tracking only, not real wagers.
Today's Games
Every NBA game on the current slate, with a quick path into each team's players and the model's own read on the matchup. Exact tip-off times aren't in your fixtures data, so games are grouped by date rather than by kickoff time.
Watchlist ⭐
Track your key players in one personalised dashboard. Add players manually or save them from Player Search to monitor current projections, form trends, matchup data and available market value without needing to search each player individually.
My Watchlist
Confidence-Based Multi
ApexMetrics analyses player disposal markets to identify the strongest statistical opportunities based on your selected confidence level. Each selection is ranked using model projections, market odds, probability and expected value to help you build smarter, data-driven multis.
Available Multi Selections
My Multi
Best Bets
Scans every player and every priced line in your Player Odds sheet against the prediction model, all at once, and ranks every bet that clears both your EV bar and a minimum win confidence — so it's not surfacing +EV bets that only pay off one time in three.
Hot stats
Find players riding genuine statistical streaks. ApexMetrics scans recent performances to identify consistent disposal trends and highlights where player form aligns with market value.
Projection Surprises
The biggest gaps between what the model projected and what actually happened, using the same walk-forward accuracy data shown on Model Performance and Leaderboards — never a lookahead prediction, so this is a genuine post-round result, not a reconstructed one.
🏆 Biggest Winners
The lines and odds ApexMetrics saw before each round, graded against what actually happened. Snapshots are taken automatically when data is published for a round and never change afterward — this shows exactly what was available at the time, wins and losses both. Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Profit figures use a hypothetical $10 unit for performance tracking only, not real wagers.
Board — ranked by expected value
Multi / parlay builder
Build smarter multis using ApexMetrics model insights. Combine player selections from the board and analyse combined odds, projected probability and expected value to determine whether your multi holds a genuine statistical edge.
Performance Tracker
Track ApexMetrics performance over time
Test how ApexMetrics performs using simulated bets. Add selections from the analysis boards, record outcomes after games are completed, and track historical model performance. No real money involved.
Bankroll Settings
Stake per bet is calculated automatically from your starting bankroll and unit size, and is used as the default stake for Units Won / ROI below.
Performance Summary
Bet History
Add More Analytics
Model Performance — Overall
Breakdown by Category
This is the AFL ledger only — NBA has its own separate Performance Tracker.
Breakdown by Confidence
Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
Evaluate ApexMetrics Prediction Accuracy
Track how accurately ApexMetrics predicts AFL player disposals over time
ApexMetrics evaluates predictions against actual match results to measure model performance, reliability and improvement.
Round Summary
Accuracy Trends
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by round — tracks average prediction error over the season. Lower is better.
Correct prediction rate (actual met or exceeded the prediction) and within-±3 rate, by round. The dashed line marks the professional benchmark.
Advanced Prediction Models: professional algorithms and automated software generally target a hit rate of 53% to 55% on standard-juice bets (-110 odds, or $1.91 decimal) — considered the high-end ceiling for long-term profitability. That's the "pro benchmark" line on the chart above, not a promise this model reaches it.
Player Line History
Search any player to see every ApexMetrics projection made for them this season, lined up against what they actually did — a running scorecard of how the model has tracked that specific player.
Prediction History
Every ApexMetrics prediction for the selected round, checked against the actual result. (Historical bookmaker lines aren't retained, so this tracks raw prediction accuracy rather than betting outcomes — see Performance Tracker for that.)
Accuracy by Confidence Level
Does a tighter, more consistent player profile actually predict better? Buckets every prediction in the selected scope by the model's confidence at the time, and checks how often the actual result met or exceeded the prediction.
AFL Predictions Today
ApexMetrics' model-generated AFL player disposal projections for this round, ranked by model edge — the gap between what the model projects and the market's own line. Updated automatically every round.
See the full season's trends on AFL Data Insights, or track every projection's outcome on Projection Surprises.
AFL Data Insights
Genuine findings from ApexMetrics' walk-forward prediction history — not editorial takes, just what the season's actual results show. Updated as new rounds are processed.
See this round's live projections on AFL Predictions Today, or look up any player directly in Player Search.
Round Recap
🔮 Ask Apex
What do you want to know?
Top Player Edges
| Player | Edge | EV | Confidence | Quality | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Today's Matches
Today| Date | Home | Away | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
Model Performance — Accuracy by Round
Get ApexMetrics news and feature announcements — no account needed, just an email.
Match Centre
Every upcoming AFL match, with a quick path into each team's players and the model's own read on the matchup.
Beat The Model
Challenge the ApexMetrics algorithm every round. Five elite disposal performers are selected and you predict how they'll perform in their next match. Track your accuracy, compete against the model, and prove whether your footy IQ can outperform the data.
There's no email system behind this — if you forget your password, you'll need to register a new username, so pick something memorable.
Weekly Leaderboard
Compare Players
Compare two players head-to-head using the ApexMetrics prediction engine. Analyse season form, recent trends, matchup history, consistency and model projections to identify which player holds the statistical edge.
Team Dashboard
Analyse every team's disposal environment before a matchup. Explore upcoming fixtures, tracked player lists and positional matchup data to understand which roles opponents allow or restrict disposals against compared with league averages.
Injuries
ApexMetrics automatically tracks player availability and removes confirmed unavailable players from predictions. Uncertain players remain monitored until their status is confirmed.
🏆 Apex Leaderboards
Ranked by real activity and genuine performance, never by raw volume or starting balance — each category uses the metric that actually reflects skill, not just time spent.
My Portfolio
Your virtual Apex Stock Market holdings — Apex Credits are fictional, and this is purely a gamified sports feature, not a financial product.
📈 Apex Stock Market
Build your portfolio. Back your players. Beat the market. Every price is built entirely from real ApexMetrics data — season form, recent form, and the same model used everywhere else on the site. This is a virtual game: Apex Credits are fictional, there's no real money anywhere in this feature, and nothing here is a financial product.
🎮 The Arcade
Play. Predict. Compete.
🏉 AFL
Stat-Line Reveal
A real AFL player's stats reveal one at a time. Guess who it is in as few reveals as possible.
Teammate Race
You've got 60 seconds. Name as many of a player's real, current teammates as you can.
🏀 NBA
Stat-Line Reveal
A real NBA player's stats reveal one at a time. Guess who it is in as few reveals as possible.
Teammate Race
You've got 60 seconds. Name as many of a player's real, current teammates as you can.
🔒 Coming Soon
Salary Cap Draft
Draft a lineup under a real salary cap, then score it against actual results the following round.
Stat-Line Reveal — AFL
A real player's stats reveal one at a time. Guess who it is in as few reveals as possible.
Stat-Line Reveal — NBA
A real player's stats reveal one at a time. Guess who it is in as few reveals as possible.
Teammate Race — AFL
60 seconds. Name as many of the player's real, current teammates as you can.
Teammate Race — NBA
60 seconds. Name as many of the player's real, current teammates as you can.
How It Works
An explanation of how ApexMetrics builds its projections, scores confidence, and calculates edge — so you know what's behind every number on the site.
Model vs Market
Player Projection Engine
Our model combines multiple performance signals to estimate expected disposals:
- Season performance
- Recent form
- Last 5 game trend
- Opponent history
- Venue history
Then compares the projection against bookmaker markets to calculate:
- Predicted disposals
- Probability estimates
- Expected Value (EV)
- Kelly staking guidance
Full methodology
On the odds: alternative disposal lines (20.5, 25.5, 30.5, etc.) are each quoted on their own, not as a two-sided Over/Under market, so there's no matching price to de-vig against. Edge is model probability minus the bookmaker's raw implied probability (1/odds) — it still includes their margin, so real edge is a little smaller than shown. EV is per $1 staked; Kelly % is the full-Kelly stake many bettors scale down (¼–½ Kelly) to manage variance.
Hit rate this season is separate from the modelled probability — it's the plain, empirical count of how many of the player's actual games this season cleared that line, no distribution assumptions involved. When it and "model prob" disagree by a lot, it usually means recent form has shifted quickly, or a small sample (like a single past meeting with this opponent) is pulling the model in a direction the season-long record doesn't support.
The label under the EV number (AVOID / PASS / WEAK BET / GOOD BET / STRONG BET / ELITE BET) is a straight read of the EV percentage: below 0% is Avoid, up to 5% Pass, up to 10% Weak, up to 20% Good, up to 30% Strong, above that Elite. A positive EV number on its own isn't the same as a good bet — it's one estimate built on a limited sample.
Why ApexMetrics?
Built for data-driven sports analysis
- No gut feeling
- No hype-based tips
- Transparent methodology
- Historical performance tracking
- Multi-sport expansion
Understanding Value
What does EV mean?
Expected Value (EV) estimates whether the available market price is favourable compared with the model's predicted probability.
A positive EV result means the model identifies a potential difference between its projection and the market price.
Important: Positive EV does not guarantee profit or successful outcomes. It represents a statistical estimate based on historical data and modelling assumptions.
How is it calculated?
EV per $1 staked = (Model Probability × (Decimal Odds − 1)) − (1 − Model Probability)
In plain terms: it's the average amount the model estimates you'd win or lose per dollar staked, if its probability estimate is accurate and the same bet were repeated many times over.
Worked example: the model gives a player a 60% chance of going over their line, and the market is offering $2.00 (decimal odds).
- (0.60 × (2.00 − 1)) − (1 − 0.60)
- = (0.60 × 1.00) − 0.40
- = 0.60 − 0.40
- = +0.20, or +20% EV
That means for every $1 staked, the model estimates an average return of 20 cents — assuming its probability estimate holds up across many similar bets. Any single bet still only wins or loses; EV describes the average across repeated bets, not the outcome of any one of them.
Responsible Gambling
ApexMetrics provides statistical analysis only. Predictions are estimates and do not guarantee betting outcomes. Gambling involves risk. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
ApexMetrics Profile
One account, one progression, across every game on the site. Beat The Model and Prediction Royale both feed into this — play either (or both) to level up.
Support Services
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free and confidential help is available in Australia.
24/7 counselling, online chat and self-help tools.
gamblinghelponline.org.au · 1800 858 858
Australia's National Self-Exclusion Register — block yourself from all licensed wagering services in one place.
betstop.gov.au · 1800 858 858
24/7 crisis support and suicide prevention.
lifeline.org.au · 13 11 14
Privacy Policy
Effective Date: 15 July 2026
1. Introduction
ApexMetrics™ ("we", "us", "our") respects your privacy and is committed to protecting your personal information. This Privacy Policy explains how we collect, use, store and disclose information when you access or use the ApexMetrics sports analytics platform ("the App"). By using ApexMetrics, you agree to the practices described in this Privacy Policy.
2. Information We Collect
The information we collect depends on how you use ApexMetrics. We may collect:
Account Information. If you create an account, we collect:
- Username
- Password (securely hashed — we never store or have access to your actual password)
- Display name (shown publicly on leaderboards and games)
- Account preferences
Creating an account does not require your name or email address. If you separately choose to sign up for our newsletter, we collect the email address and sport preference you provide for that purpose only.
Usage Information. We may collect information about how you interact with the App, including:
- Pages viewed
- Features used
- Search history within the App
- Saved players or preferences
- Device information
- Browser type
- IP address
- Usage statistics
Technical Information. We may collect technical information to:
- Maintain security
- Improve performance
- Identify errors
- Improve user experience
3. How We Use Your Information
We may use collected information to:
- Provide access to ApexMetrics services
- Maintain and improve the platform
- Personalise user experiences
- Save user preferences
- Monitor system performance
- Respond to enquiries
- Detect and prevent misuse of the App
- Comply with legal obligations
4. Sports Data and Analytics
ApexMetrics provides statistical analysis, player projections and predictive modelling based on sports data. The App may process information including:
- Player statistics
- Match data
- Historical performance data
- Sports-related information
This information is used to generate analytical insights and predictions.
5. Cookies and Analytics
ApexMetrics may use cookies and similar technologies to improve functionality and understand user behaviour. These technologies may collect information such as:
- Website activity
- Session duration
- Device information
- General usage patterns
You may disable cookies through your browser settings, however some features may not function correctly.
6. Third-Party Services
ApexMetrics may use third-party services to support platform functionality, including:
- Hosting providers
- Analytics providers
- Data providers
- Authentication services
These providers may process information according to their own privacy policies. ApexMetrics does not sell personal information to third parties.
7. Sharing of Information
We may disclose information where necessary:
- To provide requested services
- To trusted service providers assisting with operation of the App
- To comply with legal obligations
- To protect the rights, safety and security of ApexMetrics and its users
8. Data Security
We take reasonable steps to protect personal information from:
- Unauthorised access
- Loss
- Misuse
- Disclosure
However, no online service can guarantee complete security.
9. Data Retention
We retain personal information only for as long as necessary to:
- Provide services
- Maintain records
- Meet legal requirements
- Resolve disputes
When information is no longer required, reasonable steps will be taken to securely delete or anonymise it.
10. Your Rights
Depending on applicable privacy laws, you may request:
- Access to personal information we hold about you
- Correction of inaccurate information
- Deletion of your account or personal information
- Information about how your data is handled
Requests can be made using the contact details below.
11. Children and Age Restrictions
ApexMetrics is intended for users aged 18 years and older. We do not knowingly collect personal information from individuals under 18 years of age.
12. Responsible Gambling
ApexMetrics provides statistical analysis and sports insights only. Predictions, projections and statistical models do not guarantee betting outcomes or financial returns. If gambling is causing harm, support is available through the Support Services section of the App, including BetStop and other responsible gambling organisations.
13. External Links
ApexMetrics may provide links to external websites, including:
- Responsible gambling services
- Sports information providers
- Third-party resources
We are not responsible for the privacy practices, security or content of external websites.
14. Changes to This Privacy Policy
We may update this Privacy Policy from time to time. Any changes will be published within the App or website.
Terms of Use
Effective Date: 15 July 2026
1. Acceptance of Terms
By accessing or using this App, you agree to these Terms of Use. If you do not agree with these terms, you should discontinue use of the App.
2. Eligibility
This App is intended for users aged 18 years or older. By using the App, you confirm that you are at least 18 years of age.
3. Purpose of the App
The App provides AFL statistical analysis, player projections and betting-related information based on historical data and predictive modelling. All predictions are estimates only.
4. No Guarantee
The App does not guarantee:
- Prediction accuracy
- Betting success
- Profit
- Positive returns
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Users are solely responsible for any betting decisions they make.
5. Responsible Gambling
Users should gamble responsibly. If gambling is causing harm, assistance is available through BetStop and the support services listed within the App.
6. Limitation of Liability
To the maximum extent permitted by law, we are not liable for:
- Financial losses
- Betting losses
- Lost profits
- Incorrect predictions
- Data inaccuracies
- Service interruptions
Your use of the App is entirely at your own risk.
7. Intellectual Property
All content, including prediction models, software, graphics, logos and written material, remains our intellectual property unless otherwise stated. Users may not copy, distribute or reproduce any part of the App without permission.
8. Third-Party Information
The App may display information obtained from third-party providers, including sporting statistics and bookmaker odds. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness or availability of third-party information.
9. Availability
We may modify, suspend or discontinue any part of the App at any time without notice. We do not guarantee uninterrupted access.
10. User Conduct
Users agree not to:
- Attempt to interfere with the operation of the App
- Use automated methods to access the App without permission
- Misuse or exploit the prediction models
- Engage in unlawful activity while using the App
11. Amendments
We may amend these Terms of Use at any time. Continued use of the App constitutes acceptance of any updated terms.
12. Governing Law
These Terms are governed by the laws of Australia. Any disputes will be subject to the jurisdiction of the relevant Australian courts.