Update Data
This workbook is the single source of truth for the entire site — Player Search, Disposal Predictor, Confidence-Based Multi, Positive EV Finder, Best Bets, Confidence Scores, Kelly Stake, fixtures, and every chart all read from whatever is uploaded here. Nothing is hardcoded: upload a new workbook each week and every page updates automatically, with no code changes required.
If you enter the password here, this upload is published to everyone who visits the site — not just this device. Leave it blank to save this upload only on this browser, the way it worked before.
Sync from Google Sheets Beta
Pulls the current version of your Google Sheet directly — no need to download and re-upload a file each time you update it. The sheet needs to stay shared as "Anyone with the link can view" for this to work.
Syncs automatically every hour in every visitor's browser, plus once shortly after the page loads — so the whole site stays current with whatever's in the sheet without anyone needing to click anything. Editing the sheet mid-hour is safe most of the time, but if a sync happens to land while you're mid-edit, visitors could briefly see a half-updated state — worth keeping in mind if you're making a big structural change, rather than a routine data update.
NBA Data Beta
Separate upload for the NBA side of the site — its own workbook, its own data, entirely independent of the AFL upload above.
Sync NBA Data from Google Sheets Beta
Pulls the current version of your NBA Google Sheet directly — no need to re-upload a file each time you update it. The sheet needs to stay shared as "Anyone with the link can view" for this to work.
Syncs automatically every hour, plus once shortly after the page loads — so the NBA side of the site stays current with whatever's in the sheet without anyone needing to click anything.
Live AFL Disposal Odds Beta
Live AFL disposal player-prop odds from The Odds API (Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, TAB, PointsBet, Betr), merged into the odds already loaded — it doesn't replace your Excel upload, it fills in live prices on top of it. Multiple lines per player (e.g. 24.5, 29.5, 34.5) are all kept, not collapsed to one.
Refreshes automatically every Thursday at 9:00 AM AEST/AEDT in the background — a scheduled server-side job fetches once a week regardless of how many people are on the site, so every visitor reads the same cached prices instead of each browser hitting the odds API on its own.
Find a player
NBA Player Search Beta
Search an NBA player, pick their opponent and Home/Away, and see all five tracked stats — Minutes, Points, Rebounds, Assists, and 3-Pointers Made — with season/recent-form context and a matchup-adjusted prediction for each. This is a separate data source and prediction engine from the AFL side of the site.
Compare NBA Players Beta
Search two NBA players to compare season form, recent form, and consistency across all five tracked stats.
NBA Confidence Scan Beta
EdgeMetrics scans your tracked NBA players and identifies the strongest confidence-based opportunities for a chosen stat. There's no priced NBA odds sheet yet, so this ranks by model confidence, not EV — enter your own odds per leg in My Multi once you're ready to see combined price and EV.
Available Confidence Picks
My Multi
NBA Hot Stats Beta
Finds players who've cleared the same line in every one of their last games straight — a genuine streak, not a model guess.
NBA Board
Manually add a player, stat, line, and odds — since there's no priced NBA odds sheet yet, you enter the odds yourself, same as a manual add on the AFL side.
NBA Team Dashboard Beta
Select a team to see their defensive profile (how many Points/Rebounds/Assists/3PM they concede relative to the league, straight from your DefenceRank sheet) and their tracked roster.
NBA Performance Tracker Beta
Test how EdgeMetrics performs on the NBA side using simulated bets. Tracked completely separately from the AFL ledger. Uses manually entered odds, since there's no priced NBA odds sheet yet.
Bankroll Settings
Stake per bet is calculated automatically from your starting bankroll and unit size, and is used as the default stake for Units Won / ROI below.
Performance Summary
Bet History
Add More Analytics
Model Performance — Overall
Breakdown by Market
Breakdown by Confidence
Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
Evaluate EdgeMetrics NBA Prediction Accuracy Beta
Track how accurately EdgeMetrics predicts NBA player stats over time
Walk-forward accuracy — every prediction shown here was made using only data available before that game, same no-lookahead methodology as the AFL side. Choose a stat to backtest.
Round Summary
Accuracy Trends
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by round, last 20 rounds — tracks average prediction error. Lower is better. Points only — MAE is less meaningful on the narrower Rebounds/Assists/3PM ranges.
Correct prediction rate (actual met or exceeded the prediction) and within-±2 rate, last 20 rounds.
Player Line History
Search any NBA player to see every EdgeMetrics projection made for them this season for the selected stat, lined up against what they actually did.
Prediction History
Every EdgeMetrics prediction for the selected round and stat, checked against the actual result.
Accuracy by Confidence Level
Buckets every prediction in the selected scope by the model's confidence at the time, and checks how often the actual result met or exceeded the prediction.
NBA Dashboard Beta
Top Confidence Picks
All stats| Player | Stat | Confidence | Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|
Upcoming Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Venue |
|---|
Model Performance — Accuracy by Round (Points)
Watchlist ⭐
Favourite players you're tracking week to week. Add them here or star them from Player Search — this page shows their current projection and best available value bet at a glance, no need to search each one individually.
My Watchlist
Confidence-Based Multi
EdgeMetrics scans available player disposal markets and identifies the strongest low-risk opportunities based on your selected confidence level. Lines are ranked using model probability, market price and expected value.
Available Multi Selections
My Multi
Best Bets
Scans every player and every priced line in your Player Odds sheet against the prediction model, all at once, and ranks every bet that clears both your EV bar and a minimum win confidence — so it's not surfacing +EV bets that only pay off one time in three.
Hot stats
Finds players who've cleared the same disposal count in every one of their last games straight — e.g. 23+ disposals in each of the last 5, no exceptions. That's a genuine streak, not a model guess. Where your Player Odds sheet has a price at that exact line, it shows the EV of actually taking it.
Board — ranked by expected value
Multi / parlay builder
Tick two or more legs from the board above to combine them into a multi — combined odds, combined model probability, and whether the parlay as a whole is still +EV, not just each leg on its own.
Performance Tracker
Track EdgeMetrics performance over time
Test how EdgeMetrics performs using simulated bets. Add selections from the analysis boards, record outcomes after games are completed, and track historical model performance. No real money involved.
Bankroll Settings
Stake per bet is calculated automatically from your starting bankroll and unit size, and is used as the default stake for Units Won / ROI below.
Performance Summary
Bet History
Add More Analytics
Model Performance — Overall
Breakdown by Category
This is the AFL ledger only — NBA has its own separate Performance Tracker.
Breakdown by Confidence
Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
Evaluate EdgeMetrics Prediction Accuracy
Track how accurately EdgeMetrics predicts AFL player disposals over time
EdgeMetrics evaluates predictions against actual match results to measure model performance, reliability and improvement.
Round Summary
Accuracy Trends
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by round — tracks average prediction error over the season. Lower is better.
Correct prediction rate (actual met or exceeded the prediction) and within-±3 rate, by round. The dashed line marks the professional benchmark.
Advanced Prediction Models: professional algorithms and automated software generally target a hit rate of 53% to 55% on standard-juice bets (-110 odds, or $1.91 decimal) — considered the high-end ceiling for long-term profitability. That's the "pro benchmark" line on the chart above, not a promise this model reaches it.
Player Line History
Search any player to see every EdgeMetrics projection made for them this season, lined up against what they actually did — a running scorecard of how the model has tracked that specific player.
Prediction History
Every EdgeMetrics prediction for the selected round, checked against the actual result. (Historical bookmaker lines aren't retained, so this tracks raw prediction accuracy rather than betting outcomes — see Performance Tracker for that.)
Accuracy by Confidence Level
Does a tighter, more consistent player profile actually predict better? Buckets every prediction in the selected scope by the model's confidence at the time, and checks how often the actual result met or exceeded the prediction.
Top Player Edges
| Player | Edge | EV | Confidence | Quality | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Today's Matches
Today| Date | Home | Away | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
Model Performance — Accuracy by Round
Compare Players
Search two players to compare them head-to-head using the same prediction engine, confidence scoring, and EV calculations used everywhere else in EdgeMetrics — season form, matchup edge, consistency, and which one represents the stronger betting opportunity right now.
Team Dashboard
Select a team to see their upcoming fixture, tracked roster, and which positions they concede the most — or fewest — disposals to, relative to the league average.
How It Works
An explanation of how EdgeMetrics builds its projections, scores confidence, and calculates edge — so you know what's behind every number on the site.
Model vs Market
Player Projection Engine
Our model combines multiple performance signals to estimate expected disposals:
- Season performance
- Recent form
- Last 5 game trend
- Opponent history
- Venue history
Then compares the projection against bookmaker markets to calculate:
- Predicted disposals
- Probability estimates
- Expected Value (EV)
- Kelly staking guidance
Full methodology
On the odds: alternative disposal lines (20.5, 25.5, 30.5, etc.) are each quoted on their own, not as a two-sided Over/Under market, so there's no matching price to de-vig against. Edge is model probability minus the bookmaker's raw implied probability (1/odds) — it still includes their margin, so real edge is a little smaller than shown. EV is per $1 staked; Kelly % is the full-Kelly stake many bettors scale down (¼–½ Kelly) to manage variance.
Hit rate this season is separate from the modelled probability — it's the plain, empirical count of how many of the player's actual games this season cleared that line, no distribution assumptions involved. When it and "model prob" disagree by a lot, it usually means recent form has shifted quickly, or a small sample (like a single past meeting with this opponent) is pulling the model in a direction the season-long record doesn't support.
The label under the EV number (AVOID / PASS / WEAK BET / GOOD BET / STRONG BET / ELITE BET) is a straight read of the EV percentage: below 0% is Avoid, up to 5% Pass, up to 10% Weak, up to 20% Good, up to 30% Strong, above that Elite. A positive EV number on its own isn't the same as a good bet — it's one estimate built on a limited sample.
Understanding Value
What does EV mean?
Expected Value (EV) estimates whether the available market price is favourable compared with the model's predicted probability.
A positive EV result means the model identifies a potential difference between its projection and the market price.
Important: Positive EV does not guarantee profit or successful outcomes. It represents a statistical estimate based on historical data and modelling assumptions.
How is it calculated?
EV per $1 staked = (Model Probability × (Decimal Odds − 1)) − (1 − Model Probability)
In plain terms: it's the average amount the model estimates you'd win or lose per dollar staked, if its probability estimate is accurate and the same bet were repeated many times over.
Worked example: the model gives a player a 60% chance of going over their line, and the market is offering $2.00 (decimal odds).
- (0.60 × (2.00 − 1)) − (1 − 0.60)
- = (0.60 × 1.00) − 0.40
- = 0.60 − 0.40
- = +0.20, or +20% EV
That means for every $1 staked, the model estimates an average return of 20 cents — assuming its probability estimate holds up across many similar bets. Any single bet still only wins or loses; EV describes the average across repeated bets, not the outcome of any one of them.
Why EdgeMetrics?
Built for data-driven sports analysis
- No gut feeling
- No hype-based tips
- Transparent methodology
- Historical performance tracking
- Multi-sport expansion
Responsible Gambling
EdgeMetrics provides statistical analysis only. Predictions are estimates and do not guarantee betting outcomes. Gambling involves risk. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
Support Services
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free and confidential help is available in Australia.
24/7 counselling, online chat and self-help tools.
gamblinghelponline.org.au · 1800 858 858
Australia's National Self-Exclusion Register — block yourself from all licensed wagering services in one place.
betstop.gov.au · 1800 858 858
24/7 crisis support and suicide prevention.
lifeline.org.au · 13 11 14
Privacy Policy
Effective Date: 15 July 2026
1. Introduction
EdgeMetrics™ ("we", "us", "our") respects your privacy and is committed to protecting your personal information. This Privacy Policy explains how we collect, use, store and disclose information when you access or use the EdgeMetrics sports analytics platform ("the App"). By using EdgeMetrics, you agree to the practices described in this Privacy Policy.
2. Information We Collect
The information we collect depends on how you use EdgeMetrics. We may collect:
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EdgeMetrics provides statistical analysis and sports insights only. Predictions, projections and statistical models do not guarantee betting outcomes or financial returns. If gambling is causing harm, support is available through the Support Services section of the App, including BetStop and other responsible gambling organisations.
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We may update this Privacy Policy from time to time. Any changes will be published within the App or website.
Terms of Use
Effective Date: 15 July 2026
1. Acceptance of Terms
By accessing or using this App, you agree to these Terms of Use. If you do not agree with these terms, you should discontinue use of the App.
2. Eligibility
This App is intended for users aged 18 years or older. By using the App, you confirm that you are at least 18 years of age.
3. Purpose of the App
The App provides AFL statistical analysis, player projections and betting-related information based on historical data and predictive modelling. All predictions are estimates only.
4. No Guarantee
The App does not guarantee:
- Prediction accuracy
- Betting success
- Profit
- Positive returns
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Users are solely responsible for any betting decisions they make.
5. Responsible Gambling
Users should gamble responsibly. If gambling is causing harm, assistance is available through BetStop and the support services listed within the App.
6. Limitation of Liability
To the maximum extent permitted by law, we are not liable for:
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Your use of the App is entirely at your own risk.
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The App may display information obtained from third-party providers, including sporting statistics and bookmaker odds. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness or availability of third-party information.
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